Betting on underdogs at the Hero World Challenge is tough this weekend from the Albany Golf Club in the Bahamas. It’s only a 20-man field, meaning if you play the fourth lowest player on the odds, it’s still just a +2500 payout, whereas that would be +15000 or higher in a full 130+ player field.
Of course, the flip side of a small field is that it’s easier to cap the winner – in theory. What you’re looking for here is not a huge underdog like Adam Svensson at the RSM Classic a couple of weeks ago at +10000, but somebody who has more value in the middle of the pack compared to what they’d usually see.
Viktor Hovland +1800
Once again, you’re not going to get significant longshot odds outside the bottom two or three players in this field, but +1800 isn’t horrible for last year’s winner Viktor Hovland.
He shot a -18 to capture the 2021 Hero World Challenge by a stroke over Scottie Scheffler, with Hovland showing great command of the Albany layout with an 84.6% driving accuracy.
Hovland’s had a solid Fall leg of the Tour, finishing 5th at the ZOZO Championship, 21st at the CJ Cup, and 10th at the World Wide Technology Championship.
The fact that he is 12th in the OWGR but also has the 12th-highest odds to repeat at the Hero World Challenge (despite the likes of Rory McIlroy and Patrick Cantlay not playing) is frankly kind of weird.
Sam Burns +2000
A great example of a player who is not necessarily a longshot but has value according to where he’s usually priced is Sam Burns. Burns was +1100 at the Sanderson Farms Championship, for example, and +1200 at the Houston Open, so the odds this weekend are better – but also in a tougher field.
Burns withdrew from said Houston Open, but that was due more to performance/weather rather than health. The fact that he finished third here last year in his first time seeing Albany GC puts Burns in play for your card.
Jordan Spieth +2500
Jordan Spieth has only played one Tour event this fall, and it wasn’t pretty with a 52nd place finish at the CJ Cup, but he can step up when needed, as shown by a 5-0 run at the Presidents Cup.
This smaller field event does offer some prestige (and a $1 million winner’s share) as past winners have included Hovland, Henrik Stenson, Hideki Matsuyama, and Tiger Woods (5X).
Woods and Graeme McDowell are the only players to win this tournament twice, but Spieth can add his name to that list with a victory this weekend as he also claimed the 2014 crown – although that was held in Isleworth and not Albany.
Sepp Straka +6600 & Kevin Kisner +8000
Call this the Rich Strike (+8000 at the 2022 Kentucky Derby) or the Kevin Malone (“If John Cougar Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I’m going to be a rich man”) play, but neither the Sepp Straka +6600 nor the Kevin Kisner +8000 odds match equate between the risk and the field size.
Not saying just anybody can win this weekend, but there are so many variables in play during a golf tournament that if you can get +6600 or +8000 odds in a 20-man field event, you take it.
