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BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs

Course & Location:
Caves Valley Golf Club, Owings Mills, Baltimore
Dates:
Aug. 26-29 - 2021
Purse:
$9 500 000 000
Par:
72 / Yardage 7,542
Fairways:
Bluegrass/Perennial Ryegrass Mix
Greens:
Bentgrass

BMW Championship Overview

 

Caves Valley Golf Club is a member-owned non-profit organisation located in Owings Mills, Maryland. Caves Valley is a remote region with rolling topography and dense forests surrounding the border of this 962-acre property. The golf course, which debuted in 1991 and is recognised for its quick greens, rolling fairways, and water, is 30 years old. Fazio has created almost 200 courses, 46 of which are among Golf Digest’s top 200 in the United States. On the front nine, the woods have been thinned out somewhat, which helps frame some holes but isn’t as punishing as the heavily forested routings found in the Pacific Northwest and elsewhere. The back nine has denser woods and more elevation changes, making for some spectacular holes.

 

The signature hole is the 12th hole, which is 179 yards long. Par 3 – A downhill par three with an all-carry to a green guarded by three bunkers and backed by a hill. This exciting tee shot is significantly easier to hit to a front right pin location next to the chipping area than it is to a rear left pin placement, which requires more carry and a smaller landing area. This is one of the reasons why the run of holes from #9 to #14 is one of Caves Valley’s greatest.

 

5 Key Skills Set Required

This week, we visit Caves Valley Golf Club, a brand-new PGA Tour venue. It was planned by Tom Fazio and has held a handful of professional big tournaments, including the 2002 Senior U.S. Open. It hosted the International Crown team event on the LPGA in 2014 and the Constellation Senior Players Championship on the Champions Tour in 2017, where Scott McCarron triumphed.

 

It’s hard to anticipate how difficult Caves Valley will be this week, but based on the 2017 Constellation Senior Players Championship, I believe we’ll witness another low-scoring encounter.

 

Looking at the tracks it appears water is on play on plenty of holes and that the fairways are tighter than average on the PGA Tour. That said it may be that the rough isn’t too troublesome to this week’s elite field. Lots of guesswork this week with no previous data to go from so here goes;

  1. SG Off the tee – the fairways are fairly narrow according to course reports here, and those that are gaining strokes off the tee on a course that presents 3 par 4’s circa 350yards will surely hold an edge.
  2. Proximity to the hole – Given the larger green complexes this week it seems prudent to consider proximity to the hole stats, very little data to review. As mentioned, the feeling is this could be a low scoring event and the player who is dialed in close to those pins will have a district advantage.
  3. Birdie or Better percentage – I expect a low scoring affair this week and therefore it makes sense to consider birdie or better percentage.
  4. Par 4 Scoring 350 – 400 Yards – With 3 very short Par 4’s on offer to the players this week, I want to look for players who have bullied short Par 4’s in the past.
  5. Overall SG T2G – This is a long and demanding course and without a solid T2G game , players will struggle to challenge the top of the leaderboard.

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Videos

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

Free Top 20 Pick

Player

Player Name

  • The stats are quite compelling and hard to ignore having played him to win I can’t leave him out of the top 20 picks for the week in this reduced size field
  • 1st in Fairways found over the last 24 rounds, these tight fairways will put a slight premium on accuracy
  • 2nd in SG approach play over the 24 round, on a low scoring test its hard to ignore the firepower in his ironplay
  • 4TH in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards
  • 9TH SG proximity to the whole over the past 24 rounds
Odds +120
Sportsbook

Free Outright Pick

Player

Player Name

  • The stats are quite compelling and hard to ignore having played him to win I can’t leave him out of the top 20 picks for the week in this reduced size field
  • 1st in Fairways found over the last 24 rounds, these tight fairways will put a slight premium on accuracy
  • 2nd in SG approach play over the 24 round, on a low scoring test its hard to ignore the firepower in his ironplay
  • 4TH in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards
  • 9TH SG proximity to the whole over the past 24 rounds
Odds +120
Sportsbook

Free Outsider Pick

Player

Player Name

  • The stats are quite compelling and hard to ignore having played him to win I can’t leave him out of the top 20 picks for the week in this reduced size field
  • 1st in Fairways found over the last 24 rounds, these tight fairways will put a slight premium on accuracy
  • 2nd in SG approach play over the 24 round, on a low scoring test its hard to ignore the firepower in his ironplay
  • 4TH in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards
  • 9TH SG proximity to the whole over the past 24 rounds
Odds +120
Sportsbook

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BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Analysis

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

Best Outsiders Picks

Player

Taylor Gooch  

  • A top 5 at The Players earlier this year shows his ability to mix it with the best
  • Gooch has gained 1 stroke per round on approach play over his last 5 events and hasn’t lost strokes on approach play for over 8 events now
  • 1 missed cut in his last 10 events
  • Has the fire power to go low and compete at the top of the leaderboard.
Odds 150/1 +1500
Sportsbook

Player

Sabastian Munoz

  • 2 Top 10’s in his last 5 events
  • Gained Strokes in all key categories over his last 5 events
  • Comes in hot from a tied 21st last week, where only a cold putter held him back
  • Iron play is really dialed in right now gaining strokes on approach and proximity stats, both important factors ahead of this week’s test.
Odds 125/1 +1250
Sportsbook

Best Outright Picks

Player

John Rahm

  • 7 Top 10s in his last 10 events
  • 5th SG off the tee last 24 rounds on tour
  • 6th in Proximity to the hole over the past 24 rounds
  • 2nd in opportunities gained over the last 24 rounds, his aggressive style sure to suit this week
Odds 13/2 +650
Sportsbook

Player

Shane Lowry

  • Shane has been knocking on the door all year
  • 8th at The Players, 6th at Memorial and 4th at the PGA Championship
  • 6th in Par 4 scoring over the past 34 rounds
  • Gained nearly 2 stokes per round on approach play at the Northern trust showing his irons are in top form.
  • Gained strokes in T2G performance and approach play in each of his last 10 events, he is primed to go close
Odds 45/1 +4500
Sportsbook

Player

Abraham Ancer

  • The stats are quite compelling and hard to ignore
  • 1st in Fairways found over the last 24 rounds, these tight fairways will put a slight premium on accuracy
  • 2nd in SG approach play over the 24 round, on a low scoring test its hard to ignore the firepower in his ironplay
  • 4TH in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards
  • 9TH SG proximity to the whole over the past 24 rounds
  • What’s not to like – he is a confident pick going into the BWM Championship.
Odds 40/1 +4000
Sportsbook

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

Player

Abraham Ancer

  • The stats are quite compelling and hard to ignore having played him to win I can’t leave him out of the top 20 picks for the week in this reduced size field
  • 1st in Fairways found over the last 24 rounds, these tight fairways will put a slight premium on accuracy
  • 2nd in SG approach play over the 24 round, on a low scoring test its hard to ignore the firepower in his ironplay
  • 4TH in Par 4 Scoring 350-400 yards
  • 9TH SG proximity to the whole over the past 24 rounds
Odds +120
Sportsbook

Player

Sabastian Munoz

  • 2 Top 10’s in his last 5 events
  • Gained Strokes in all key categories over his last 5 events
  • Comes in hot from a tied 21st last week, where only a cold putter held him back
  • Iron play is really dialed in right now gaining strokes on approach and proximity stats, both important factors ahead of this week’s test.
Odds +320
Sportsbook

Player

Keegan Bradley

  • 2 wins on Bentgrass Putting surfaces
  • 2ND in SG Proximity to the hole over the last 24 rounds
  • 3rd in Fairways gained over the past 24 round
  • 4th SG T2G last 24 rounds
  • 6th GIR gained last 24 rounds
  • All lines up for a solid week, and I’m happy to play him in the top 20 markets
Odds +220
Sportsbook

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Analysis

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Analysis

3 Ball Picks

Player

Shane Lowry to beat Tom Hoge & Cameron Champ

Odds +120
Sportsbook

Player

Taylor Gooch to beat Mackenzie Hughes & Patton Kizzire

Odds +160
Sportsbook

Player

Corey Conners to beat Stewart Cink & Joaquin Niemann

Odds +137
Sportsbook

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

2 Ball Picks

Player

Kevin Na to beat Charles Schwartzel

Odds 5/6
Sportsbook

Player

Harold Varner to beat Brian Harman

Odds 10/11
Sportsbook

Halfway Additional Outright Pick

Player

Patrick Cantley  

Odds 4/1
Sportsbook

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Analysis

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Picks

2 Ball Picks

Player

Dustin Johnson to beat Hudson Swafford

Odds -179
Sportsbook

Player

Maverick Macnealy to beat Cam Smith

Odds +164
Sportsbook

Player

Paul Casey to beat Viktor Hovland

Odds +114
Sportsbook

Player

Hideki Matsuyama to beat Brian Harmen

Odds -115
Sportsbook

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Analysis

BMW Championship- Final 70 FedEx Playoffs Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

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