We were a 20-foot made putt by Sepp Straka on the 18th hole last weekend from seeing a 500/1 pre-tournament underdog cash in. Instead it was Will Zalatoris who survived the playoff and won his first Tour event at 25/1, but at least that showed the underdogs have a chance even in playoff events with big name fields.
This week the FedEx Cup playoffs go to Wilmington Country Club. The BMW Championship is a staple of the playoffs, but it also rotates every year being played in Caves Valley, MD, Olympia Fields, IL, and Medinah, IL the last three seasons.
This is the first time Wilmington C.C has hosted an official PGA event, so since there’s no course history let’s see which underdogs can come out on top.
Tony Finau 16/1
Not a huge underdog but Finau has the eighth lowest odds in the field this week which has incredible value for the way he has been playing lately. Finau finished in fifth last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, almost disappointing after he had won the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in previous starts.
Finau could start to burn out as he’s played in four of the last five tournaments including the Open Championship in Scotland. This could also just be his time of the year, as he tallied a Northern Trust victory to open up last year’s FedEx Cup playoffs.
Cameron Young 25/1
Zalatoris got his last week after heartbreaking runner-up finishes at the U.S. Open and PGA Championships – so is it Young’s turn to follow suit? It’s just Young’s first full year on the Tour, but the 25-year-old has already racked up five runner-ups and two third place finishes as he still waits for his first PGA win.
Young finished 31st last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship so maybe the long season is getting to him after he had been in the top three in five of the previous six tourneys he had made the cut in. Still worth riding him one more time at 25/1, especially on a course that seems like it will favor the bombers and Young being fourth in driving distance.
Shane Lowry 50/1
Lowry isn’t considered a heavy hitter ranking 47th in the PGA Tour in driving distance (306.9) but he’s got some other metrics to like heading into BMW Championship betting. Lowry has a win at the WGC Bridgestone in 2015 at the Firestone C.C., which has very similar course comps to Wilmington. He also enters the weekend as one of the top players in the field in shots gained on the approach even though his results aren’t showing it lately (46th at FedEx St. Jude, 83rd at the Wyndham).
Corey Conners 50/1
Conners played too good to finish 28th last weekend in Memphis. He hit the ball 311.4 yards off the tee on average and was accurate (75%) while also ranking fifth in GIR. Obviously Conners putter is where he lost things, but the greens at Wilmington CC are massive and if the Canadian can be that long and that accurate again he should be in contention.