A case could be made that the 2022 John Deere Classic is the hardest tournament to handicap all season. Between some players going to the LIV as well as some schedule changes to the slotting of this tournament, the field includes just two players in the top 75 in the OWGR rankings – Webb Simpson and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
Simpson is the 14/1 favorite but his best finish this year is 8th place at the RSM Classic. That means things are opening up for a pretty profitable weekend with Simpson and Adam Hadwin (18/1) the only two golfers in the field with lower than 20/1 odds.
Profitable…if you can find the winner that is.
About TPC Deere Run
Twelve holes on TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL have a scoring average under par, which is why you see winning scores like Lucas Glover at -19 last year, Dylan Frittelli at -21 in 2019, and Michael Kim at -27 in 2018.
There are three par 5’s on this course as well as three par 4’s that play under 400 yards. Cameron Champ (40/1) is in this field and has the highest driving distance in the PGA (321.4). Joseph Bramlatt (125/1) is 6th in driving distance so in a tournament without a lot of the heavy hitters can these big swingers get an edge?
The Breakthrough Tournament
Due largely in part to having big names skip this tournament because it was traditionally the week before The Open, the John Deere Classic has proven to be a great opportunity for younger or mid-tier players to get their first career win.
Jordan Spieth began his quest to being a household name after holing out from the bunker on 18 in 2015 to force a playoff and going on to beat Tom Gillis for his first victory. Bryson Dechambeau posted a one shot win over Patrick Rodgers at this tournament in 2017 for his maiden Tour victory.
Frittelli in 2019, Kim in 2018 and Brian Harman in 2014 were all the first career victories for those respective golfers. Is this the time for Denny McCarthy (28/1) to get his first PGA win after coming close at the Memorial (5th), the American Express (7th), and the U.S. Open (7th)?
The Former Champs
This is a tournament that people can have repeat success at, just look at Steve Stricker (80/1) winning the John Deere Classic in three straight years from 2009 to 2011. Local hero Zach Johnson (80/1) finished first or second here from 2012-2014, and Ryan Moore (100/1) has a win here in 2016 as well as a runner-up finish last year.
Lucas Glover (40/1), the 2021 winner is in this field as is Frittelli (66/1) who took home $1,080,000 for his 2019 win.
This should be an interesting weekend and it wouldn’t be a shock if nearly anybody in the field comes out on top here. This is a perfect tournament to sprinkle multiple winning golfer wagers because whoever is the victor is likely going to have some hefty odds.
