The Memorial Tournament at Muirfield Village Golf Club in Dublin, Ohio has settled down a bit. David Lingmerth won this event in 2015 even though he almost opted to play in his home country of Sweden that weekend instead. Then 36-year-old journeyman William McGirt followed that up with a victory in 2016 for his first career Tour win.
This event is a tournament on a course that Jack Nicklaus designed, that Tiger Woods has won five times, and has mostly been dominated by PGA elite. That has returned to be the case since the surprising ‘15 and ‘16 results, with the list of recent winners including Dufner, DeChambeau, Rahm, and Cantlay.
Most people consider this to be Jon Rahm’s (10/1) tournament to win as he did in 2020. Rahm also had a six stroke lead after 54 holes last season only to be forced to withdraw due to a positive COVID test. Can anybody step up to challenge Rahm? What are some of the other best bets of the weekend?
Jon Rahm to Win (+1000)
Those are still pretty solid odds for a guy who has dominated here the last two years. The world #2 golfer had a six stroke lead in 2021 which was tied for the biggest lead after 54 holes in tournament history. Rahm’s headspace doesn’t seem as good as it was at this point last season (27th or worse in three of past four tournaments) but he’s going to want this one after last year’s controversy.
Collin Morikawa Top 5 Finish (+330)
Collin Morikawa loves playing at Muirfield Village, losing in the playoff to Cantlay last season and winning the 2020 Workday Charity Open here with a -19, 66 or better in three of four rounds. It’s been over a year since Morikawa has won in the United States, and he’s the only player in the OWGR Top 10 without a PGA win this season.
Morikawa is due, but he’s also been close. He was the runner-up at both the CJ Cup and the Genesis Invitational and also finished 5th at the Masters. A top 5 at a course he has had success at seems inevitable.
Sungjae Im Top 5 Finish (+500)
Muirfield Village is going to play long this weekend, and in this situation ball striking becomes a bit more prioritized. That’s perfect for Im, who ranks 3rd in ball striking, 5th in greens in regulation, and 14th in total drive rank – but is 70th in putts per round.
Xander Schauffele Top 10 Finish (+155)
The natural progression for Schauffele at the Memorial would be at least a Top 10 finish after he came in 14th in ‘19, 13th in ‘20, and 11th in ‘21. Schauffele missed the cut at the Masters and at TPC Sawgrass, but otherwise has come in 13th or better in six other tournaments since February.
Lingmerth / McGirt Special: Lucas Herbert to Win (+15000)
Herbert finished 18th here a year ago and did come in 13th recently at the PGA Championship. Certainly a long shot, but nice draw-a-name-out-of-a-hat low risk play.