The 122nd edition of the U.S. Open is upon us from the Country Club in Brookline, Massachusetts. The U.S. Open hasn’t been to Brookline since 1998, when Curtis Strange bested Nick Faldo in an 18-hole playoff.
Jon Rahm is the defending champion after shooting -6 last year at Torrey Pines. Three times in the last ten years, the winner of this USGA event has had a score over par, but Rory McIlroy (2011) and Brooks Koepka (2017) have also won with a course record -16 fairly recently.
It’s hard to know what to expect at a major, especially the U.S. Open. The top 60 and ties make it to the weekend, so let’s take a look at who oddsmakers expect to have the best chances of getting to the finish line atop the field.
Rory McIlroy (10/1)
McIlroy will have some momentum after taking the RBC Canadian Open last weekend, but history is also not on his side for a repeat in Brookline. McIlroy hasn’t won a major since the 2014 PGA Championship, and the last three U.S. Open winners (and seven of the last ten overall) have taken off the week before the event.
It should be noted that McIlroy cannot instantly be counted out just because of past trends at this event. He’s playing solid golf right now with four other top 10s to go along with his RBC Canadian Open victory.
Justin Thomas (12/1)
Thomas will try to add the U.S. Open to his major mantle after capturing two PGA Championship victories in his career. Thomas has finished in the top 10 in 10 of his past 15 tournaments overall this season but hasn’t done better than eighth in his last six U.S. Open appearances.
Only five other golfers have won the PGA Championship and the U.S. Open in the same season, so Thomas has a tough task ahead of him.
Scottie Scheffler (14/1)
Scottie Scheffler has missed the cut in two of his four U.S. Open appearances, but he finished seventh in 2021, and his game has really made a breakthrough this year.
Scheffler took the week prior to the Masters off before winning his first career green jacket, but he decided to play in Toronto last weekend, taking 18th at the Canadian Open.
Cameron Smith (16/1)
Cameron Smith had bookends of 76 and 71 at the Canadian Open last weekend, but he is still the fourth-highest favorite for the U.S. Open. Smith does have a Players Championship trophy win under his belt this season and finished second at the 2020 Masters.
One of the biggest things Smith has going for him this weekend is that five of the past six U.S. Open winners had never won a major prior to their victory, including Rahm last year.
Jon Rahm (16/1)
Rahm is the defending champ, and Koepka showed in 2017 and 2018 that it is possible to go back-to-back. Rahm finished 48th at the PGA Championship and 27th at the Masters, so he hasn’t been in his top major form this season…yet.
