The fact that Scottie Scheffler is the +900 favorite this weekend at Mayakoba for the World Wide Technology champions almost gives an instant boost to the underdogs in this field.
It doesn’t look like there’s any way Scheffler is winning this tournament after his F-grade performance at the Presidents Cup and finishing 45th at the CJ Cup with three rounds of 70+
There is one golfer standing in the way of a nice longshot underdog win this weekend, though, and that’s Viktor Hovland (+1200), who is the 2X defending champion of this tournament held in the Riviera Maya.
It’s a very decent field that includes Tony Finau (+1400) and Collin Morikawa (+1600) but let’s see if there are some shockers set up for success this weekend.
Taylor Montgomery +3300
It’s always a bit iffy to bet on a guy in his first event at a particular course, but that also shouldn’t eliminate a person from your card. It’s a matter of when, not if, Taylor Montgomery picks up his first TOUR win, as he’s finished no worse than 15th in four events this season.
Montgomery is 12th in shots gained: total this season and behind just Billy Horschel, Tom Hoge, and K.H. Lee in this field.
Seamus Power +4000
Most people avoid betting on golfers who won the week prior, but that’s how you get +4000 value on somebody like Seamus Power, who jumped 16 spots in the OWGR following his win last week at the Bermuda Championship.
It’s not just Power’s victory last week in a diluted field in which he picked up the win despite bogeying four of his last six holes that gives the Irishman value this week – it’s his 11th place finish here in 2021. Power hit 76.4% of his GIR and stayed out of trouble with just five holes of bogey or worse.
Aaron Rai +6600
Aaron Rai is definitely trending in the wrong direction after a T20 at the Shriners Children’s Open was followed up with 36th at the ZOZO Championship and then 54th last weekend in Bermuda.
That being said, there are some metrics that like the Englishman this weekend. He’s been accurate in his drives (69.55%) and hitting GIR (73.61%) despite his poor finishes and came in 15th at Mayakoba last season with three rounds of 67 or better.
Danny Lee +20000
Last year’s field at the El Camaleón Golf Course was impressive, and there’s a reason Hovland (1st) and Scheffler (4th) are returning betting favorites after nice showings here in 2021.
The rest of last year’s leaderboard includes local product Carlos Ortiz (2nd), Matthew Wolff (T5), and Joaquin Niemann (T5), who have joined LIV, and Justin Thomas (3rd), who is not playing in this event.
By default, the best returning player (aside from Hovland and Scheffler) is Australian Danny Lee, who finished seventh here in 2021, shooting all four rounds under 70.
He really wasn’t especially good in any particular area, with a 55.4% driving accuracy and hitting 69.4% GIR, but when you can avoid trouble with just five bogeys or worse, you’re going to be in contention.
