Gingerbets Insights & Picks

Genesis Invitational 2022

Course & Location:
Riviera Country Club, Pacific Palisades, CA
Dates:
17 - 20 Feb 2022
Purse:
$9.3 Million
Par:
71 / Yardage 7,322
Fairways:
Kikuyu
Greens:
Poa annua

Genesis Invitational 2022 Overview

 

120 of the worlds finest players will tee it up this week, 35 of the worlds top 50 will be in attendance for this highly anticipated event. Riviera CC is one of America’s most classical golf courses. It challenges a player’s overall game and takes awhile to perfect. All player types can have success here.

 

This traditional layout, which includes a challenging array of par-4s, long par 3 holes and 3 very reachable par 5’s , there is a advantage for those that have places course experience. It’s not a course that can be easily beaten and will test every part of the players game this week. There ain’t no faking it round Riviera.

 

Riviera has a lot of doglegs and tight fairways, thus it’s always one of the most difficult fairways to hit on Tour. On a course where getting close to the pin is difficult even for players who hit the fairway, the penalty for missing fairways isn’t a big factor this week due to the low rough and looking at the initial social media picture the rough is particularly low this week. It’s always difficult to get the ball close on approach here with some of the lowest GIR percentages on tour. This puts a lot of emphasis on the player’s short game all week. Hitting greens in regulation here is a must, the last 5 winners have all ranked in the top 10 for GIR. If you are to miss the green one further difficulty the players face is getting up and down from the sand. Sand saves here are some of the hardest on tour.

 

Riviera’s greens are Poa annua and are almost 5,000 square feet in size, which is smaller than the average on Tour. The course’s bumpy surfaces and proximity to the ocean have made it one of the most difficult to putt on on the Tour. They are consistently ranked among the most difficult within 10 feet.

 

The player that lifts the trophy Sunday evening will have the skill set to move the ball both ways off the tee box and with a iron in hand, their short game will have to be deadly, and they’ll be required to hold their fair share of putts. A true test of golf on a magnificent golf course. I expect a leaderboard with only the highest class names at the top.

 

 

5 Key Skills Set Required

  1. SG Off the Tee – Some of the hardest fairways to hit on tour face the players this week and it’s not all about driving accuracy players can strategically miss the fairways on the right side, given it them opportunity to attack the pins. Accuracy and playing from the fairways is an advantage gaining strokes off the tee is of more importance. Bubba Watson a three-time winner here for example it’s not someone renowned for accuracy but certainly someone who gains strokes of the tee consistently.
  2. GIR Gained – Small undulating greens face the players this week and when looking at the stoical data it is quite clear that hitting a high percentage of greens in regulation will be critical to determine our players chances. Each of the last five winners have ranked in the top 10 of the greens in regulation is gained on that given week and I see it being no different this week at Riviera country club.
  3. SG Around the Green – Small greens are the order of the day this week. Therefore players are inevitably going to miss the green 20 to 30% of the time meaning a real emphasis on getting up and down and saving the scorecard.
  4. Par 5 Scoring – For the first week in a while putting isn’t making headlines in the key categories to consider section however it is slightly built-in to the scramble in statistics that I will be looking at this week. Scrambling has been a key factor here at the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Winners of the event often scrambling at a 70% or better throughout the week.
  5. Bogey Avoidance – This is a tough and demanding track regardless of the conditions even in the most benign ones. Challenging par fours and long par threes mean players will Certainly have to battle for par at times throughout this event. At the historic data boogie avoidance has been a key statistic in separating those at the top of the leaderboard and those that fall away. Even the worlds best ball strikers are going to have to battle for par at certain times throughout this week and therefore avoiding bogus is something I strongly advise considering making your own selections.
  6. Sand Save Percentage – Ranks in the five hardest courses each and every year for sand save percentage, this week will be no different. In a event that contains 35 of the worlds top 50 it will pay dividends to consider players who excel from the sand, and when narrowing down my portfolio this was a key stat to consider.

Genesis Invitational 2022 Videos

Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Best Outsiders

Paul Casey
  • Best placed 2nd here in 2015 , made the cut in every visit, not many can say that at Riviera.
  • At difficult scoring events like this he ranks in the top 10 for SG T2G, Ball Striking, Par 5 scoring, Bogey Avoidance , statistically he has the game to go well here, has he got the mentality?
  • Can shape the ball with comfort both ways from the tee box and with irons in hand, a key a attribute required this week.
Odds 66/1
Sportsbook

Best Outright Picks

John Rham
  • 2 top 10’s from 3 visits, best of 5th last year.
  • Most consistent golfer in the game right now.
  • Putts the Poa Annua greens well.
  • Top 10 for SG off the tee, par 4 scoring, scrambling, bogey avoidance.
  • He will be hungry to get his first victory of 2022 ahead of his Masters challenge. I expect a highly motivated Jon Rahm this week. He is my most confident selection this week.
Odds 9/1
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Underdog Outsider Pick
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Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Analysis

Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Best Outsider Picks

Paul Casey
  • Best placed 2nd here in 2015 , made the cut in every visit, not many can say that at Riviera.
  • At difficult scoring events like this he ranks in the top 10 for SG T2G, Ball Striking, Par 5 scoring, Bogey Avoidance , statistically he has the game to go well here, has he got the mentality?
  • Can shape the ball with comfort both ways from the tee box and with irons in hand, a key a attribute required this week.
Odds 66/1
Sportsbook

Mackenzie Hughes
  • No great record here let’s be clear, however many successful players here at Rivera have missed cuts before winning.
  • Ranks highly for Bogey Avoidance, Sand Saves and Scrambling over the past 50 rounds on tour.
  • Gained over 1.5 strokes per round putting at pebble beach 2 weeks back on very similar surface the players face this week.
  • He best strokes gained performances have come on difficult scoring tracks like he faces this week, when the going gets tough Mackenzie Hughes comes to the party.
Odds 90/1
Sportsbook

Christian Bezuidenhout
  • Debut here so no course form to go on, however the mid scoring test of 9-14 under should be right up his street.
  • He ranks in the top 15 for scrambling and sand saves percentage, both key attributes this week at Riviera.
  • He gained 1 stroke each round putting on the Poa Annua surfaces at pebble beach, very similar to what he will face this week.
  • He maiden win on the PGA Tour awaits, this is the type of event I can see him being involved in come the back 9 Sunday.
Odds 90/1
Sportsbook

Best Outright Picks

John Rham
  • 2 top 10’s from 3 visits, best of 5th last year.
  • Most consistent golfer in the game right now.
  • Putts the Poa Annua greens well.
  • Top 10 for SG off the tee, par 4 scoring, scrambling, bogey avoidance.
  • He will be hungry to get his first victory of 2022 ahead of his Masters challenge. I expect a highly motivated Jon Rahm this week. He is my most confident selection this week.
Odds 9/1
Sportsbook

Cam Smith
  • 4th here last year and 2 top 10 finishes from 6 visits.
  • This course demands you can shape the ball both ways from the tee and with your irons, something that Cam can do with ease.
  • The course also demand a top class short game which he possesses.
  • Top 10 in this field for SG around the green, bogey avoidance & par 5 scoring which will all be crucial this week.
Odds 20/1
Sportsbook

Xander Schauffele
  • Arrives on the back of a 3rd place finish at WMPO.
  • Best 9th placed finish here in 2019.
  • Gained strokes putting at all 4 previous visits.
  • 1st par 5 scoring on hard tracks over past 24 rounds, 2nd in GIR gained on tough tracks.
  • Top 10 for SG par 4 , sand saves & SG off the tee
Odds 20/1
Sportsbook

Matt Fitzpatrick
  • 5th here last year and arrives in the back of top 20 finishes at Pebble & WMPO.
  • Top 10 in Par 5 scoring on hard tracks over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Putts well in Poa greens, gained over half a stroke per round on the field at pebble which is a similar surface.
  • Clearly in good form, a technical layout will suit his game and I feel a win here is well within his reach.
Odds 33/1
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Underdog Outsider Pick
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2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
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Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Best Top 20 Picks

Christian Bezuidenhout
 

  • Debut here so no course form to go on, however the mid scoring test of 9-14 under should be right up his street.
  • He ranks in the top 15 for scrambling and sand saves percentage, both key attributes this week at Riviera.
  • He gained 1 stroke each round putting on the Poa Annua surfaces at pebble beach, very similar to what he will face this week.
  • He has the skill set to capture a top 20 at this event.
Odds 3/1
Sportsbook

Jordan Speith
 

  • Finished in the top 20 in 4 of his nine starts at this event.
  • Elite level short game which will be required this week to finish in the top 20.
  • Positive putting performance on Poa putting greens.
  • The lack of rough at Riviera country club will nullify the one weakness in Jordan’s game which is off the Teebox with accuracy at times. I expect a really strong performance from Jordan this week.
Odds 6/4
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Analysis

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Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Analysis

Day 1 – 3 Ball Picks

Players

Justin Thomas to beat Cam Smith & Sam Burns

Odds 6/4
Sportsbook

Players

Jason Kokrak to beat Luke List & Andrew Putnam

Odds 5/4
Sportsbook

Players

Paul Casey to beat Lanto Griffen & Ryan Palmer

Odds 7/5
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
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Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Day 3 – 3 Ball Picks

Players

Maverick McNealy to beat Scott Piercy & Keegan Bradley

Odds 7/5
Sportsbook

Players

Viktor Hovland to beat Russel Knox & Cam Smith

Odds 29/20
Sportsbook

Players

Justin Thomas to beat Joaquin Niemann & Cam Young

Odds 11/10
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Analysis

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
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Genesis Invitational 2022 Picks

Final Day 2/3 Balls

Players

Coming soon

Odds N/A
Sportsbook

Players

Coming soon

Odds N/A
Sportsbook

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Analysis

Genesis Invitational 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

2022 Genesis Invitational Tournament Expert Picks & Predictions
02/16/2022

Past Tournaments

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