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Liberty National - The Northern Trust 2021

Course & Location:
Liberty National, New Jersey
Dates:
Aug. 19 -22 - 2021
Purse:
$9 500 000 000
Par:
71 / Yardage 7,410
Fairways:
Bentgrass
Greens:
Undulating Bentgrass

The Northern Trust 2021 Overview

The 18-hole Championship Golf Course was designed by Tom Kite, the 1992 US Open Champion, and famous golf course architect Bob Cupp, who cooperated on the project. Liberty National’s parkland links style plan by Kite & Cupp is dramatic while remaining traditional, taking into account the site’s cultural heritage, aesthetic ideals, and light and shadow aspects. The Statue of Liberty, the New York Harbor, the Manhattan Skyline, and the Verrazano Narrows Bridge are all visible from the golf course.

 

If the wind picks up, we could see a winning score in the low teens, however if it were to remain calm throughout your going to have to go low, the course record is 62, it would be a shock if going this week.

 

Patrick Reed won The Northern Trust event in 2019 with a winning score of -16. When it was known as The Barclays and hosted at Liberty National in 2009 and 2013, the winning scores were 9 and 11 under par, respectively. In 2013, Adam Scott won a nail-biting Sunday fight with Tiger Woods, Justin Rose, and Gary Woodland T2, and Phil Mickelson T6.

 

Comments from the designers:

“You need to drive it fairly straight at Liberty National, and the greens are such that if you don’t drive it straight it is tough to get to the pin,” Kite says. “What I try to do is not have any one part of the game dominate. I don’t want it to be just a putting course or just a bombers course. I want you to be rewarded for length, accuracy, iron shots, chipping and bunker shots. And, of course, putting will always be there.

 

Adds Cupp: “We were together on this and I don’t think we ever had a disagreement on the aesthetics. Tactically, Tom’s knowledge goes beyond perfection. And it’s also about the conditioning of the golf course and also what the player feels when you play the golf course, what your senses record, what you see.”

 

Key Skill Sets Required

  1. SG Off the tee – The fairways are fairly generous here, and those that hit it long and accurately will certainly hold an advantage over the field.
  2. SG around the green – 2019 winner of the Northern Trust Patrick Reed showed just how important SG around the green is. This demanding layout with sand a plenty will require a solid short game.
  3. GIR Gained – the greens here are harder to hit than average on the PGA Tour so I will be looking for player who consistently find the greens in regulation. Small green will mean those finding them will have plenty of birdie looks.
  4. SG putting on Bentgrass Greens.
  5. Overall SG T2G – This is a long and demanding course and without a solid T2G game , players will struggle to challenge the top of the leaderboard.

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Best Outsiders Picks

Player

Jason Kokrak  

  • 9th in 2013 on this track
  • 12th 2019 at this track
  • He has followed a miss cut with victory in the past when missing the cut at the Shriners Hospital Open , then following up with victory at CJ Cup. Jason has the game to go from the ridiculous to sublime
Odds 75/1
Sportsbook

Player

Keegan Bradley

  • 2 wins on Bentgrass Putting surfaces
  • 4th SG T2G last 24 rounds
  • 6th GIR gained last 24 rounds
  • 11th in Bogey Avoidance last 24 rounds on tour
Odds 140/1
Sportsbook

Player

Sergio Garcia

  • 10th GIR gained last 24 rounds
  • 9th SG T2G over the last 24 rounds
  • 18th SG off the tee last 24 rounds, show he overall game is in good health.
  • Will have a huge desire to cement his place on the Ryder cup team given his past with the captain a win her would make him impossible to ignore.
Odds 90/1
Sportsbook

Best Outright Picks

Player

Patrick Cantley

  • 6th SG T2G last 24 rounds
  • 3rd SG GIR gained last 24 rounds
  • 2nd Bogey Avoidance last 24 rounds
  • A course that suits his Impeccable T2G game, he will see this as perfect t opportunity to secure his Ryder cup place come September
  • 3 wins on Bentgrass greens
Odds 33/1
Sportsbook

Player

Paul Casey

  • 2nd SG T2G last 24 rounds , only Colin Morikawa head him in world golf
  • 4th GIR gained over the past 24 rounds
  • 4th Proximity to the hole over the last 24 rounds
  • Gaining over 2 strokes per round T2G on the field last 5 events
  • Gaining over 1 stoke per round on approach play last 5 Events
Odds 38/1
Sportsbook

Player

Daniel Berger

  • 3 top 10’s in his last 4 events
  • A winner on Bentgrass putting surfaces
  • Gaining 1.2 strokes per round on approach play last 5 events
  • Gaining 1.2 strokes per round T2G over the last 5 events
  • 9th in GIR gained last 24 rounds
Odds 30/1
Sportsbook

Player

Maverick McNealy

  • Remember the name his coming to a winner circle near you soon
  • No stand out stats but extremely consistent
  • 18th SG T2G last 24 rounds
  • 2nd sand saves last 24 rounds
  • 3 top 20’s in the last 5 events
  • Gaining 1 stroke per round T2G last 5 events
Odds 180/1
Sportsbook

 

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Strategies & Previews

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Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Picks

Player

Maverick McNealy

  • 18th SG T2G last 24 rounds
  • 2nd sand saves last 24 rounds
  • 3 top 20’s in the last 5 events
  • Gaining 1 stroke per round T2G last 5 events
Odds 5/1 +500
Sportsbook

Player

Patrick Cantley

  • 3rd in my overall model for the week
  • 2nd bogey avoidance last 50 rounds on tour
  • 3rd SG T2G last 50 rounds on tour
  • 6th Par 4 scoring on holes 450-500 yards long
  • 4th in GIR gained over the past 50 rounds
Odds 6/4 +150 
Sportsbook

Player

Scottie Scheffler

  • 5 top 20’s in last 7 events
  • Been knocking on the door all year
  • Top 20 in his last 5 major starts on tough demanding tracks like the players face this week.
Odds 6/4 +150
Sportsbook

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Analysis

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Analysis

3 Ball Picks

Player

Matt Wallace to beat Sam Ryder & Tom Hoge

Wallace has superior form on tough and demanding T2G layouts like players face this week.

Odds 11/10
Sportsbook

Player

Adam Scott to beat Harry Higgs & Wyndham Clarke

Scott comes in on the back of return to form but will be hurting from that short miss in a playoff. Still, he is the class act in the 3 ball and should be too strong on a course that suits his game.

Odds 10/11
Sportsbook

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Picks

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Picks

2 Ball Picks

Player

Xander Schauffele to beat Kevin Na

  • Xander is gaining stokes in key areas, putting, approach and T2G
  • Na is performing well, but heavily relaying on his short game to stay in contention can this continue over the weekend as the track gets harder, I doubt it
Odds 8/11
Sportsbook

Player

Jordan Spieth to beat Robert Streb

  • Spieth fired a second round 9 under par to get himself back in contention for this event, I don’t see him taking his foot off the pedal on day 3.
  • Streb on the other hand is losing strokes on approach, which will out more stress on his short game as the week goes on.
  • Spieth is gaining stokes on all key categories such as approach play, T2G and around the green.
  • Jordan should have too much class for Streb on day 3./li>
Odds 1/2
Sportsbook

Player

Bryson DeChambeau to beat Zach Johnson

  • Bryson leads the field including Rahm in SG approach this week so far, gaining 3 stokes per round on approach play.
  • His is hitting 72% of GIR which sets up well going into the weekend
  • Zach on the other hand is losing strokes on approach and has a hot putter to thank for his place on the leaderboard.
Odds 8/11
Sportsbook

Halfway Additional Outright Pick

Player

Xander Schauffele  

  • Gaining 2.4m strokes per round on approach shows his iron game is dialled in.
  • Gaining 1,2 strokes per round putting, he is rolling his ball super good this week
  • Confidence is high following the recent gold medal at the Olympics
Odds 17/2 +850
Sportsbook

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Analysis

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Picks

2 Ball Picks

Player

Viktor Hovland to beat Conner & Hoge

  • This should be a shootout between Hovland and Conners
  • Hovland will have his eyes on the main prize just 3 back, a position that isn’t insurmountable
  • Hovlands approach and off the tee stats are great this week and with soft conditions to fire at pins I expect a low one from Viktor
Odds +120
Sportsbook

Player

Doug Ghim to beat Noren & Na

  • Doug shot 8 under on Saturday to catapult him up the leaderboards
  • Na has been hugely reliant on his short game this week and with soft conditions, he will need to hit a few closer to the flag stick to challenge Ghim
  • Noren himself has been relying on a hot putter through the first 3 days, in a wide-open contest I’m happy to favour Ghim
Odds +200
Sportsbook

Player

Taylor Gooch to beat Niemann & Schenk

  • Gooch is in the top 5 players this week on SG approach, with conditions soft on Monday low scoring is expected and therefore iron play will be key
  • Niemann is really struggling on the green this week, this is sure to hold him back even if he does hit plenty close
  • Price is just to big to ignore given his stats this week. He is an aggressive player who will enjoy the low scoring nature of Mondays play
Odds +200
Sportsbook

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Analysis

Liberty National – The Northern Trust 2021 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

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