Gingerbets Insights & Picks

Mexico Open 2022

Course & Location:
Vidanta Vallarta, Mexico
Dates:
28 April - 1 May 2022
Purse:
$7.3 Million
Par:
71 / Yardage 7,456
Fairways:
Paspalum
Greens:
Paspalum

Mexico Open 2022 Overview

 

A new stop on for player on the PGA Tour this week as they head over to Mexico. The Mexico open makes its debut at a new stop on tour, Vidanta Vallarta. Unfortunately, with the Wells Fargo next week which has an much bigger prize purse to play for, the field this week is relatively weak.

 

Jon Rahm has chosen to make the journey. Despite his recent poor form, he will be the man to beat in this field. Only Rahm, Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, and Tony Finau are ranked inside the top 25 in the OWGR rankings. In addition to Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Sebastian Munoz, the top 75 golfers are Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.

 

We have very little data to work with this week, what we do know is the course has been lengthened by over 200 yards in order to challenge the world’s best players. There have been nine new tee boxes added to the course in preparation for this event. The course will play as a par 71 despite being a par 73 for the members. To accomplish this, they converted two par 5s to long par 4s and we now have a par 73 to a par 71. The 55 bunkers on the property have also been overhauled and reconstructed to prepare for the world best players, the PGA Tour have been working closely with the course supervisors to help best protect this from being a 30 under par event.

 

The course is described as having large landing areas off the tee, but it also has numerous bunkers and water hazards in play on approach shots. It appears to be a true second-shot course, with players free to hit driver off the tee on all par 4s and par 5s.

 

With no penalty from the rough and wide open fairways, bombers have the upper hand this week. We expect little rollout on sticky fairways, especially those with the longest carry distance as their ball trajectory isn’t conducive to roll out.

 

Eight of the holes this week will be doglegs right which in theory should suit faders of the ball off the tee box so when narrowing down your portfolio this could be something to bear in mind. Only 2 of the holes are doglegs left. As always pin positions will determine the shot shapes of the approach shots. To the birds eye view there looks to be an advantage to those who play a stock fade and bomb it.

 

We are expecting the winds to get up in the afternoon as is often the case in this area, could this provide opportunity for player to come from far behind over the weekend as the leader face the brunt of the conditions, let’s hope so it will make for great viewing. Let’s now look at the key skill area which will be required to lift the trophy come Sunday evening.

 

 

Key Skills Set Required

    1. SG T2G – A new event and course for the players this week. Therefore, I will be start my keys stats by looking at the foundation of all good play and that’s those that gain strokes T2G. I will be looking at players who are in good form over the past 24/36 rounds. This is expected to be a low scoring event, which makes it more important for players to have shown solid T2G performance in recent months. It’s would be surprising if a complete out of form player T2G was able to take down this title in what could be 20under par or better.
    2. Driving Distance – With this being a resort course and very little punishment off the tee players are expected to be able to bomb it without much fear the consequences. This should favourite players who have significant length of the tee, allowing them short irons and wedges into almost every green.
    3. SG Approach – A low scoring event is on the cards this week. Players will have to be hitting their irons shots close time and time again. We want to look closely at player who are dialed in with their irons over the past 24 rounds. It’s unlikely you will be competing at the top of this leaderboard if your iron game has been off in recent week.
    4. Par 4 Birdies or Better – A low scoring event is predicted. The superintendent of the course predicted a winning score of 18 under par with some other member of the course set up team have said it could be as low as 20under par. Regardless of whom proves correct the player will need to be making birdies and plenty of them. I want to target players who are nailing their irons and putts over the past 24/36 rounds.
    5. SG Putting – Putting is a key factor on the majority of PGA Tour stops and given the predicted low scoring nature of the event this week I want to have players onside who are rolling their rock good over the recent months. The successful player come Sunday will have certainly gained strokes over the field with the flat stick.

Mexico Open 2022 Videos

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Best Outsider Pick

Mark Hubbard
  • Ranks in the top 10 for SG Total over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • 4th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds, a solid foundation for the week ahead.
  • 6th SG around the green, which will be hugely beneficial if the predicted wind does pick up.
  • 13th SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • A huge price for a player who is statically playing well right now, strong chances of outrunning his odds.
Odds 66/1
Sportsbook

Best Outright Pick

Sebastian Munoz
  • Ranked 9th in Ball striking over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 11th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 8th SG Off the tee over the past 24 rounds.
  • The shape of his T2G game right now should set up plenty of birdie opportunities. A low scoring event is one in which Munoz can thrive at fair odds.
Odds 33/1
Sportsbook

First Round Leader

Sebastian Munoz
 
Odds +4000
Sportsbook

Cameron Champ
 
Odds +5000
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

News Articles Coming Soon

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Analysis

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Best Outsider Picks

Mark Hubbard
  • Ranks in the top 10 for SG Total over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • 4th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds, a solid foundation for the week ahead.
  • 6th SG around the green, which will be hugely beneficial if the predicted wind does pick up.
  • 13th SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • A huge price for a player who is statically playing well right now, strong chances of outrunning his odds.
Odds 66/1
Sportsbook

Aaron Rai
  • Arrives in solid form after a great showing with his partner at the New Orleans Zurich Classic.
  • 13th in SG T2G over the past 24 rounds
  • Ranked 10th for opportunities gained over the past 24 round on tour.
  • This is a second shot course and he has gained strokes with approach play in 8 of his last 10 events.
Odds 50/1
Sportsbook

Alex Smalley
  • He came 2nd at Puntacana last month , another resort course and weakened field like we he faces this week.
  • Ranked 10th in SG total over the past 24 rounds in this field.
  • Ranked 6th in GIR gained over the past 24 rounds, similar form should result in plenty of birdie looks this week.
  • Ranked 4TH in proximity to the hole over the past 24 rounds on tour, showing his iron game is where it needs to be compete.
Odds 100/1
Sportsbook

Andrew Putnam
  • Ranked 15th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 6th in SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 7th in opportunities gained over the past 24 rounds on tour, which will suit the low scoring nature of this event.
Odds 150/1
Sportsbook

Best Outright Pick

Sebastian Munoz
  • Ranked 9th in Ball striking over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 11th SG T2G over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • Ranked 8th SG Off the tee over the past 24 rounds.
  • The shape of his T2G game right now should set up plenty of birdie opportunities. A low scoring event is one in which Munoz can thrive at fair odds.
Odds 33/1
Sportsbook

Cameron Tringale
  • Still seeking his first PGA Tour win, this is an ideal opportunity in one of the weakest fields he will have participated in.
  • 4 top 20’s in his last 8 events in much more competitive fields.
  • 2nd in SG Total in this field over the past 24 rounds on tours
  • Ranked in the Top 10 for Par 4 & 5 scoring over the past 24 rounds.
  • A second shot course he has gained strokes with approach play in 8 of his last 9 events.
Odds 28/1
Sportsbook

Brendon Todd
  • Ranks in the top 15 for SG total, this is across all key skill areas of the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • 3rd in Par 4 scoring over the past 24 rounds on tour, par 4 scoring will be a key factor this week.
  • 9th in GIR gained which shows his iron play is warming up at the right time of year.
  • Gained over 1 stroke per round putting over his competitors in his last 2 events and gained strokes putting in 6 of his last 7 events.
  • I expect a strong showing in a weak field, his patience and precision should be rewarded.
Odds 40/1
Sportsbook

Adam Long
  • Ranks in the top 15 for Strokes gained total in this field over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • The wind is expected to get up this week and he ranks 8th in SG short game and 12th SG putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • He is gaining 1/2 a stoke per round putting over his last 5 events.
  • 12th last time out at the RBC Heritage and only one missed cut in his last 6 events shows his game is in a good place ahead of this challenge. In a weak field I expect him to outperform his odds.
Odds 50/1
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Best Top 20 Picks

Patrick Reed
  • After a poor run of form Pat has show signs of return with top 30 finish at the Players and 35th at the Masters. He is one of the elite level players in this field.
  • Wide fairways with little punishment of the tee is right up Captain America’s street, so the course will be to his liking.
  • His attacking play and world class wedge game should set up a plethora of birdie looks
  • 13th SG approach play over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • If he can putt well I can’t see Patrick outside the top 20. With a little more form his odds would be considerably less and I’m happy to make him my top 20 lock.
Odds +125
Sportsbook

Adam Long
  • Ranks in the top 15 for Strokes gained total in this field over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • The wind is expected to get up this week and he ranks 8th in SG short game and 12th SG putting over the past 24 rounds on tour.
  • He is gaining 1/2 a stoke per round putting over his last 5 events.
  • 12th last time out at the RBC Heritage and only one missed cut in his last 6 events shows his game is in a good place ahead of this challenge. In a weak field I expect him to outperform his odds.
Odds +200
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Analysis

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Analysis

Day 1 – 3 Balls

Players

Adam Long to beat Martin Trainer and Robert Streb

Odds +110
Sportsbook

Players

Garry Woodland to Beat Graeme McDowell & Carlos Ortiz

Odds +120
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Half Way – 3 Ball Picks

Players

Jon Rahm to beat Adam long & Alex Smalley

Odds -138
Sportsbook

Players

Matt Wallace to beat Sebastian Munoz and Charles Howell

Odds +300
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Analysis

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

Mexico Open 2022 Picks

Final Day 3 Balls

Players

Brandon Hagy to beat Wes Bryan & Stephen Jaeger

Odds +188
Sportsbook

Players

Tony Finau to beat Adam Long & Chez Reavie

Odds +110
Sportsbook

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Analysis

Mexico Open 2022 Betting Strategies & Previews

No data was found

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