Mexico Open 2022 Overview
A new stop on for player on the PGA Tour this week as they head over to Mexico. The Mexico open makes its debut at a new stop on tour, Vidanta Vallarta. Unfortunately, with the Wells Fargo next week which has an much bigger prize purse to play for, the field this week is relatively weak.
Jon Rahm has chosen to make the journey. Despite his recent poor form, he will be the man to beat in this field. Only Rahm, Abraham Ancer, Daniel Berger, and Tony Finau are ranked inside the top 25 in the OWGR rankings. In addition to Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Sebastian Munoz, the top 75 golfers are Kevin Na, Patrick Reed, Cameron Tringale, Christiaan Bezuidenhout, and Christiaan Bezuidenhout.
We have very little data to work with this week, what we do know is the course has been lengthened by over 200 yards in order to challenge the world’s best players. There have been nine new tee boxes added to the course in preparation for this event. The course will play as a par 71 despite being a par 73 for the members. To accomplish this, they converted two par 5s to long par 4s and we now have a par 73 to a par 71. The 55 bunkers on the property have also been overhauled and reconstructed to prepare for the world best players, the PGA Tour have been working closely with the course supervisors to help best protect this from being a 30 under par event.
The course is described as having large landing areas off the tee, but it also has numerous bunkers and water hazards in play on approach shots. It appears to be a true second-shot course, with players free to hit driver off the tee on all par 4s and par 5s.
With no penalty from the rough and wide open fairways, bombers have the upper hand this week. We expect little rollout on sticky fairways, especially those with the longest carry distance as their ball trajectory isn’t conducive to roll out.
Eight of the holes this week will be doglegs right which in theory should suit faders of the ball off the tee box so when narrowing down your portfolio this could be something to bear in mind. Only 2 of the holes are doglegs left. As always pin positions will determine the shot shapes of the approach shots. To the birds eye view there looks to be an advantage to those who play a stock fade and bomb it.
We are expecting the winds to get up in the afternoon as is often the case in this area, could this provide opportunity for player to come from far behind over the weekend as the leader face the brunt of the conditions, let’s hope so it will make for great viewing. Let’s now look at the key skill area which will be required to lift the trophy come Sunday evening.
Key Skills Set Required
- SG T2G – A new event and course for the players this week. Therefore, I will be start my keys stats by looking at the foundation of all good play and that’s those that gain strokes T2G. I will be looking at players who are in good form over the past 24/36 rounds. This is expected to be a low scoring event, which makes it more important for players to have shown solid T2G performance in recent months. It’s would be surprising if a complete out of form player T2G was able to take down this title in what could be 20under par or better.
- Driving Distance – With this being a resort course and very little punishment off the tee players are expected to be able to bomb it without much fear the consequences. This should favourite players who have significant length of the tee, allowing them short irons and wedges into almost every green.
- SG Approach – A low scoring event is on the cards this week. Players will have to be hitting their irons shots close time and time again. We want to look closely at player who are dialed in with their irons over the past 24 rounds. It’s unlikely you will be competing at the top of this leaderboard if your iron game has been off in recent week.
- Par 4 Birdies or Better – A low scoring event is predicted. The superintendent of the course predicted a winning score of 18 under par with some other member of the course set up team have said it could be as low as 20under par. Regardless of whom proves correct the player will need to be making birdies and plenty of them. I want to target players who are nailing their irons and putts over the past 24/36 rounds.
- SG Putting – Putting is a key factor on the majority of PGA Tour stops and given the predicted low scoring nature of the event this week I want to have players onside who are rolling their rock good over the recent months. The successful player come Sunday will have certainly gained strokes over the field with the flat stick.