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2021 BMW Championship Betting Preview

Jon Rahm

Caves Valley Golf Club in Baltimore is the site of the BMW Championship, the second PGA Tour playoff event, with the top 70 players in the FedEx Cup point standings in the field vying for 2000 points for the winner and to complete the week in the top 30 to qualify for the Tour Championship. Tony Finau defeated Cameron Smith on the first playoff hole for his second PGA Tour victory that elevated him to the top of the standings entering the week.

The tournament doesn’t have a 36 hole cut, so players can potentially recover from a bad round, adding some excitement to the event. While many of those players near the top of the standings already have enough points to get to the final event, they want to finish as high as possible to gain an advantage at East Lake, the site of the Tour Championship.

The Tom Fazio designed Caves Valley is a par 72 and plays to 7,542 yards, a lengthy layout that should favor longer hitters. It’s the first time most of the field will see the course, although it has played host to a number of LPGA and PGA Tour Champions events in the past.

Last year’s BMW Championship took place at Olympia Fields in the Chicago area and Jon Rahm defeated Dustin Johnson on the first playoff hole by sinking a 66-foot putt. Johnson had won the Northern Trust the week before by 11 shots and went on to capture the Tour Championship and the FedEx Cup a week later.

Despite his failure to close out the win last week, Jon Rahm is still a healthy favorite at odds of +600…

FedEx Cup Point Standings

With his big win, Finau jumped from 23rd to the top of the standings, 585 points ahead of second-place Jon Rahm, who seemed to have the Northern Trust well in hand with a three-shot lead on Monday before a couple of late bogeys derailed the round. Smith moved up 13 spots to third, Patrick Cantlay dropped one place to fourth and Justin Thomas used a fourth-place finish to move from ninth to fifth.

The rest of the top ten are Collin Morikawa, who dropped out of the lead after a missed cut, Jordan Spieth, Harris English, Bryson DeChambeau, and Abraham Ancer. The final spot in the field went to Phil Mickelson, who barely made it in after missing the cut and falling from 58th to 70th.

Betting Odds

Despite his failure to close out the win last week, Jon Rahm is still a healthy favorite at odds of +600, well in front of Justin Thomas at +1600. Spieth, Morikawa, and Olympic gold medalist Xander Schauffele, who is 13th in the standings, are next with odds of +1800.

Dustin Johnson and DeChambeau, who are both looking to break out of periods of poor play, at least by their high standards, are at +2000. At +2200 are Brooks Koepka, Louis Oosthuizen, last week’s runner-up Cameron Smith, Patrick Cantlay, and Northern Trust winner Tony Finau.

Other top players include Rory McIlroy, 28th in the standings at +2700, Masters champion Hideki Matsuyama with odds of +3400, two-time 2021 winner Jason Kokrak at +6500, and 51-year-old PGA Championship winner Phil Mickelson at +12000.