The golf weekend gets started a bit early, as tee-off for the Farmers Insurance Open begins on Wednesday to avoid a Sunday finish that conflicts with the NFL Championship Games.
That means a short turnaround from those who participated in the American Express last week, but it’s also only an 80-mile trek from La Quinta to San Diego.
We head to Torrey Pines (North and South) for the weekend, and the main storyline is if anybody can stop Jon Rahm. He’s won both Tour events he’s played in 2023 and is the betting favorite at his most cherished course.
About Torrey Pines
Golfers will play the North Course and the South Course once on Wednesday and Thursday and then shift to the South only for the final 36 holes. Having hosted two U.S. Open major events in the past, this course gets a reputation for being tough – and it is. Justin Rose in 2019 (-21) is the only winner of the past ten years to shoot better than -15.
What makes Torrey Pines tough is its length – the longest on the Tour, in fact, at 7,765 yards. Ten holes on the South course are over 450 yards long, and all of the par 5’s are at least 560 yards. It makes sense to go with the big drivers as part of the Farmers Insurance Open betting strategy.
Of course, distance isn’t everything at Torrey Pines, as the South Course has also proven to be one of the more difficult for putting. Just for good measure, the narrowness of the fairways, as well as the tendency to bomb away from the tee to shrink some of this distance, means the driving accuracy at the South Course is traditionally on the very low side.
Farmers Insurance Open Field
This isn’t a great tournament for underdogs, as six of the last ten winners have gone off at +2500 or lower, including Tiger Woods at just +750 in 2013 and Jason Day at +1300 in 2015. That doesn’t mean the underdogs can’t show up here, though, as Scott Stallings claimed the Farmers Insurance Open in 2014 with astounding +25000 odds.
In the last three years, the trend of big favorites coming out on top has started to shift. Marc Leishman won in 2020 at +5500, Patrick Reed used a great showing at the North course to cruise to a 2021 victory at +2500, and last year at +8000, Luke List edged out +3000 Will Zalatoris in a playoff.
Rahm was the +750 favorite going into the 2022 Farmers Insurance Open and ended up third which is actually kind of disappointing because this is his Mecca. Rahm got his first Tour victory at Torrey Pines in 2017, got engaged here in 2018, and won his first major here at the 2021 U.S. Open.
The obvious golfers we look to upset Rahm (+450) include former California native Xander Schauffele (+1100), who looked better last week with a T3 at the AmEx after having to withdraw from the Sentry in Maui a couple of weeks ago. Sungjae Im (+2000) finished sixth at the Farmers last year but had his struggles in the North and not the South, which is strange.
Tony Finau (+1200) had a runner-up here in 2021, doomed in by a Saturday 74 but ready to check Torrey Pines off his list of courses conquered. L.A. native Collin Morikawa (+1600) would love to get a win close to home and to help him forget a 54-hole, six-stroke lead that he blew at the Sentry.
Justin Thomas (+1400) got off to a scorching start here last year with a 68-63 but struggled over the weekend. Will Zalatoris (+1400) has the revenge factor working after losing to List in the playoff here last season.
